2024 is over and it feels like we’ve been in crisis mode all year, already, as we begin 2025. In Ukraine, the war approaches its third anniversary, and the people continue to suffer from daily Russian strikes on their cities and critical infrastructure. Canada is gripped by political gridlock and uncertainty around Justin Trudeau’s leadership. And in a few short weeks we will witness the inauguration of Trump 2.0. The 47^th President hasn’t even taken office and world leaders including Zelenskyy and Trudeau, have already made the pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to curry Trump’s favour.

It's hard not to worry that that the next twelve months will be worse than the last. Instead, I’ve decided to look at 2025 and Trump 2.0 from a different perspective: could Trump be good for Ukraine?

The real deal in Ukraine

A peace agreement will take a while, but there’s a real chance that active fighting will end in 2025. Donald Trump has already made Ukraine part of his election platform by saying he would end the war within 24 hours of taking office. There’s no way the war will stop on January 20^th just because Trump says so. However, by making Ukraine one of the ‘deals’ he is willing to pursue, Trump may be good for Ukraine because it means ending the war will remain in the geo-political and social media spotlight.

Trump considers himself the best dealmaker on the planet and now he thinks he can win for America. However, negotiating an acceptable truce in Ukraine means negotiating with Vladimir Putin. Don’t believe all that chatter you hear about Trump and Putin being good friends or that Trump is in Putin’s pocket, this is business and in business there is only one rule, win the deal.

Trump will be looking for any advantage he can have over Putin before he sits down to make his deal to end the war.

We need more ammo not a ride, Mr. President

It’s assumed that Trump will end all U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine. However, Trump could gain a bigger advantage over Putin by giving more military aid and support. The longer Ukraine holds out against Russia, or the more Ukraine advances, the less credibility and respect Putin will have at the negotiating table.

Furthermore, Putin expected his special military operation would take three weeks to be victorious. Now that it’s been three years, Russia has completely lost its global image of a strong nation.

Make Russia pay

It has been a long and incredibly tough job getting G7+ governments to commit to holding Russia accountable, but 2025 will make all the hard work worthwhile. An amended Special Economic Measures Act (SEMA) in Canada and the REPO Act in the U.S. give both countries the ability to seize any sanctioned Russian asset in their countries on behalf of Ukraine. Finland has already started seizing Russian assets, Estonia has passed relevant legislation, and in recent days the U.K. has indicated they are looking to do the same.

The REPO Act gives Trump the power to seize any Russian assets in the U.S. and doing so will give him leverage in any negotiation with Putin and Russia. For this reason, it is almost certain that Russian assets in the U.S. will be seized in 2025.

Place your bets

The only thing Trump loves more than the art of the deal is attention. He’s a classic narcissist and the biggest stage is the geo-political one. Ukraine is one of the most urgent crises on the planet so there will be great attention paid to Trump’s efforts to negotiate. Any country that backs him at the negotiation table can expect a concession from the U.S. on something relevant to them domestically.

The Government of Canada should pay attention as the amendment to SEMA specifying Russian assets held in Canada, including $19 billion held by Euroclear, has not yet been passed. If the Prime Minister wants a reduction of the threatened 25% import tariffs, Canada needs to back Trump at the geo-political deal table – which means passing the SEMA amendment as soon as possible.

Likewise, if the EU wants to appease Trump, they must find a way to get the $190 billion dollars of Russian state assets in Euroclear, seize it or allow others to seize it, and back Trump during negotiations. The same goes for the U.K., Japan, Australia and any other nation with sizable reserves of frozen Russian assets. If Belgium ever wants to sell a single chocolate or any Stella Artois in America again, they’d better encourage Euroclear to cooperate.

Whatever your opinion of Trump, he makes things happen and he’s not afraid to upset a few countries along the way to do it. If the war in Ukraine is going to end in 2025, Trump may be our best hope of making it happen Face it: after three years, the current group of Western leaders haven’t even come close.  And it sure feels better to be approaching 2025 with some hope rather than dread. 

Slava Ukraini! Heroiam Slava!