It has been a busy couple of weeks for the Ukrainian military. On August 6, 2024, an unknown number of Ukrainian armed forces crossed the border into the Kursk region taking the war back to Russia. Kursk is a federal subject region of the Russian Federation with a population of 1 million people, many ethnic Ukrainians who speak fluent Ukrainian. Kursk shares a border with the Sumy region in Ukraine’s northeast and is close to the Russian occupied territory of Luhansk.

Why now? and why invade Russia when you have had your hands full fighting a war of attrition in your own country for almost 3 years?

Because we could

The simplest answer is because they could. Clearly the Ukrainian army and their relatively new commander, Oleksandr Syrski, have been planning this little foray into Russia for many months and they did a great job keeping it secret from everyone, including their allies in the West. Secrecy is key in a country that has been partially occupied for a decade and is still littered with enemy agents so their ability to roll almost completely unopposed 30km into Russian territory is a tactical masterstroke.

While Syrski and the Ukrainians deserve the lion’s share of the credit, let also make sure we heap lots of credit on the incompetence of the Russian military and border guards. By all accounts the border between Ukraine and Kursk was completely unmanned and the well supplied Ukrainian military was able to roll right through without even getting their passports stamped.

Welcome to Russia, please enjoy your stay

Whatever resistance the Russian military was able to muster was amateur at best as convoys of untrained, undefended and unequipped conscripts were either destroyed in their trucks by Ukrainian Kamikaze drones or surrendered en masse to Ukrainian troops. As Ukrainian Special Forces backed by 2 battalions of the Georgian Legion pushed forward and captured hundreds of kilometres of territory and dozens of villages, while hundreds of thousands of Russians from Kursk and next-door Belgorod region were evacuated.

Unlike the Russians and their Chechen allies who rape and murder their way through Ukrainian villages and towns before destroying them completely, Ukrainian soldiers have been paying for their own groceries in local stores, handing out drinking water to civilians and candy to children and generally leaving the people alone. Civilians are the victims of war, not combatants and they are often caught in the crossfire but in the case of the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, they are viewed as liberators who treat them better than their own government.

Gee big surprise 

Putin’s response has been uncharacteristically vague, labelling the incursion a terrorist act, not an act of war, and he threatens an appropriate response. What’s appropriate? Who knows? Will Putin be able to push the Ukrainians back with the raw conscripts and WWII era equipment at his disposal or will he be forced to transfer some of his best troops and equipment back from the fighting in Ukraine to deal with a superior Ukrainian force with superior personnel and equipment?  It remains to be seen but one thing is for sure, this surprise attack by Ukraine has accomplished some very important things.

First, morale in Ukraine is soaring and many of the young men who, just a few weeks ago were secretly looking for a way to get out of the country to avoid being thrown into a trench to fight a metre-by-metre war of attrition, are now joining the army in the hopes that with their help, Ukraine can finally turn the tide in this decade long war.  Many of Ukraine’s allies who were taken by surprise are now being forced to acknowledge that the Ukrainians are pretty good fighters and they can be trusted to win.

Coalition of the oppressed

The invasion has also provided proof to other former Russian-occupied nations that Russia can be beaten, now and finally, in Ukraine rather than on their doorstep. The Georgian legion has been fighting in Ukraine for many years now because their country is also occupied by Russia and they know that if they help their big brother now, they will be able to count on their help ridding themselves of their Russian occupiers.

Even NATO member states like Poland, and the Baltics; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, have pledged to support Ukraine should this invasion lead to Russian advances in other parts of Ukraine like Donetsk and Luhansk. This time their pledge includes boots on the ground providing an interesting dilemma for the rest of NATO as this could lead to Russians attacking NATO members which thanks to article 5 means that all of NATO is now obligated to get involved.

Bottom line is that this war with Russia was started by Russia and will be finished by Ukraine and its allies. Poland and the Baltic states know all too well what it means to live under the Russian yoke and it’s better to bring the war to Russia in Ukraine now than to fight the Russians in Tallinn and Warsaw 10 years from now.

Regardless of the final outcome, this incursion into Russia has again proven that Ukraine can take the offensive and beat Russia back as long as they have the guns and bullets to do so. Give the Ukrainians and inch and they will take a mile and that is how to beat Russia and now the entire world knows it.

Slava Ukraini!  Heroaim Slava!